Low-propensity voters, people who are registered but vote irregularly, are the hardest turnout target and often the biggest opportunity. There are a lot of them, they lean toward campaigns that bother to reach them, and a small lift in their turnout can swing a race. Texting can reach them affordably, but moving them takes more than a reminder. Here's what works.
Who are low-propensity voters?
Registered voters with a spotty or minimal vote history, people who might vote in a presidential year but skip midterms and locals, or who've rarely voted at all. They're distinct from your reliable base, which votes no matter what, and from non-registered residents. The strategic point is that base voters will turn out anyway, so the marginal turnout gains, the votes you wouldn't otherwise get, come disproportionately from moving low-propensity voters.
What actually moves them?
Not just reminders, they know there's an election, they're not planning to vote. What moves irregular voters is closer to the tactics research supports for turnout: making it feel doable and expected, and human contact:
- Plan-making. Asking when, where, and how they'll vote turns a vague non-intention into a concrete plan, which lifts turnout more than a generic nudge.
- Human contact. P2P conversations and relational messages from someone they know move irregular voters more than a broadcast blast.
- Removing friction. Clear, specific how-to-vote information, since low-propensity voters are likelier to be tripped up by logistics.
- Social and local framing. That their community and people like them are voting.
How do you run it by text?
Target the low-propensity slice using voter file history, then reach them with higher-touch texting than you'd use on your base. Broadcast reminders alone won't do it; concentrate P2P and plan-making on this universe, because the conversation and the plan are what convert an irregular voter. It's more effort per voter than turning out your base, but the votes it produces are the ones that actually change the margin. See the GOTV plan for the timing.
Frequently asked questions
Who are low-propensity voters?
Registered voters who vote irregularly, skipping many elections. They're distinct from the reliable base and are where the marginal turnout gains come from, since the base votes anyway.
How do you turn out low-propensity voters by text?
With higher-touch tactics than reminders: plan-making questions, human P2P and relational contact, clear how-to-vote information, and social framing. Concentrate the effort on this universe.
Why focus on low-propensity voters?
Because your base votes regardless, so the votes you can actually add come from moving irregular voters. A small turnout lift among them can swing a race, and they lean toward campaigns that reach them.
Keep reading: voter ID by text and relational texting. For the rules, see the FCC.