Here's a fact that decides more local races than most people realize: a meaningful share of voters who show up mark the president, senator, or governor at the top of the ballot and then stop, leaving the down-ballot races blank. That's ballot drop-off, or roll-off, and if you're running down-ballot, it's often your biggest obstacle, bigger than the opponent.
Why voters drop off
Fatigue and information. A long ballot is tiring, and voters who don't recognize the candidates for county commissioner, school board, or judge often skip rather than guess. The lower the office and the less familiar the names, the steeper the drop-off, which is exactly why the smallest races suffer it most.
The opportunity hiding in it
Drop-off means many of the people who could vote for you are physically in the voting booth and simply not completing your race. You don't have to turn them out, they're already there. You have to get them to finish the ballot and to recognize your candidate when they reach it. That's a far easier job than turnout from scratch, and it's one a text does well.
How texting fights drop-off
Two moves. First, name recognition, repeated, simple exposure to your candidate's name and office so that when the voter reaches that spot, the name is familiar rather than blank. Second, an explicit "don't stop at the top" prompt, a reminder that the important local races are further down and worth completing. Telling a supporter exactly where on the ballot to find you, and to keep going, converts a would-be blank into a vote.
The takeaway
For a down-ballot campaign, the voter who shows up and skips your race is a bigger problem than the voter who stays home. Fight drop-off by building name recognition so your candidate isn't a stranger on the ballot, and by explicitly prompting supporters to complete the whole thing. It's the cheapest bloc of votes available, already at the polls, just not finishing.
Frequently asked questions
What is ballot drop-off?
When voters mark the top of the ballot, president, senator, governor, and quit before completing the down-ballot races, leaving them blank. It hits the lowest-profile, least-familiar races hardest.
Why does drop-off matter for local campaigns?
Because many of your potential voters are already in the booth and simply not completing your race. Getting them to finish the ballot is far easier than turning out new voters, and it decides local contests.
How does texting reduce drop-off?
By building simple name recognition so your candidate isn't a stranger on the ballot, and by explicitly prompting supporters not to stop at the top, telling them where to find your race and to complete the whole ballot.
Drop-off is the down-ballot campaign's real opponent. See down-ballot and local races.
Keep reading: The anatomy of a great political text and turning out low-propensity voters.