Off-year and odd-year elections, the ones held when there's no presidential or midterm race driving attention, share a defining trait: turnout craters. When few people are paying attention, the electorate shrinks to the most engaged, and the race is decided almost entirely by which side mobilizes its supporters. That makes off-year elections a nearly pure test of turnout, exactly where texting delivers most. Here's how it fits.
What's distinctive about an off-year election?
Very low, unpredictable turnout. Without a top-of-ticket race pulling voters to the polls, off-year and odd-year elections, many municipal races, some state elections, various local contests, see turnout fall dramatically, sometimes to a small fraction of registered voters. The electorate becomes small, hard to predict, and dominated by the most motivated. In that environment, persuasion matters less, because so few people are voting, and turnout matters enormously, because the race goes to whoever gets more of their supporters to show up.
How does texting fit an off-year campaign?
Turnout, turnout, turnout:
- Identify supporters with voter ID, finding your people in a small, low-attention electorate.
- Mobilize relentlessly. With turnout so low, every identified supporter who votes is enormous, so GOTV is the core work.
- Reach low-propensity supporters, off-year voters skew toward the most reliable, so pulling in your less-reliable supporters is decisive.
- Cheap, defined-universe reach, exactly what a low-budget off-year race needs.
Why is texting so well suited to off-year races?
Because an off-year election rewards the two things texting does best, cheap reach to a defined universe and turnout, and discounts the thing it does least (broad persuasion). When the outcome hinges on mobilizing your supporters in a low-turnout environment, a disciplined texting program that identifies and turns out even a few more of your people can decide the race. Off-year campaigns also tend to be lower-budget, which favors texting's cost-effectiveness over pricier channels. This is the same logic as a special election: the lower and more unpredictable the turnout, the more a turnout-focused texting program is worth. In off-year races, mobilization is nearly the whole game, and text is the most cost-effective mobilization tool there is.
Frequently asked questions
What's distinctive about an off-year election?
Turnout craters without a presidential or midterm race driving attention, so the electorate shrinks to the most engaged and becomes small and unpredictable. The race is decided almost entirely by which side mobilizes its supporters.
How does texting fit an off-year campaign?
It's all about turnout: identify supporters in the small electorate, mobilize them relentlessly through GOTV, pull in less-reliable low-propensity supporters, and do it with cheap, defined-universe reach that fits a low-budget off-year race.
Why is texting well suited to off-year races?
Because off-year elections reward cheap reach to a defined universe and turnout, texting's strengths, and discount broad persuasion, which matters less when so few vote. A turnout-focused program that mobilizes a few more supporters can decide the race.
Keep reading: turning out low-propensity voters and texting for a mayoral or municipal race. For voter tools, see Vote.org.