Some elections are decided race by race. Others are decided by a wave, a national mood that lifts one party's candidates and sinks the other's, nearly everywhere at once. Midterms are especially wave-prone, since they often become a referendum on the party in power. If a wave is building, your texting program should adapt to it.
What a wave changes
In a wave, the national environment does part of your persuasion for you. Voters are already moving in one direction on the strength of the broad mood, so the marginal persuadable voter is easier to move if you're riding the wave and harder if you're fighting it. That shifts the emphasis of a campaign, and its texts, away from persuasion and toward turnout: the job becomes converting a favorable mood into actual votes.
If you're riding the wave
Lean into turnout. The environment is working for you, so your highest-value work is making sure the voters the wave is moving toward you actually show up. Enthusiasm is your ally, and a texting program that captures it, growing the list as interest surges and driving it to the polls, compounds the wave's effect.
If you're fighting the wave
Localize and differentiate. When the national mood is against your side, your survival often depends on separating your race from the wave, making it about local issues, your specific record, and a personal relationship with voters rather than the national party. Texting, direct and personal, is a strong channel for that localized, relationship-based message that a wave-year opponent will try to nationalize.
The takeaway
A wave turns the whole election toward turnout and mood. Read the environment honestly: if it's with you, pour everything into converting enthusiasm into votes; if it's against you, use the personal, local reach of a text program to make your race about something other than the wave. Either way, the campaigns that name the wave correctly and adjust beat the ones that pretend every race is an island.
Frequently asked questions
What is a wave election?
One decided less by individual races than by a national mood that lifts one party and sinks the other nearly everywhere at once. Midterms are especially wave-prone as referendums on the party in power.
How should I text if I'm riding a wave?
Lean into turnout. The environment does part of your persuasion, so your highest-value work is capturing surging enthusiasm, growing the list, and making sure favorable voters actually show up.
How should I text if I'm fighting a wave?
Localize and differentiate. Use the personal, direct reach of texting to make your race about local issues and your own record rather than the national party the wave is punishing.
Read the environment, then adjust. See the 2026 midterms are a turnout election.
Keep reading: The complete 72-hour GOTV plan and turning out low-propensity voters.